A Man-made Contagion
Scientists build a pandemic flu strain in the lab
It’s a rare kind of research that incites a frenzied panic before
it is even published.
But it’s flu season, and influenza science has a way of
causing a stir this time of year
Epidemiologists have long debated the pandemic potential
of H5N1, aka bird flu.
On one hand, the virus spreads too inefficiently between
humans to seem like much of a threat: it has caused fewer
than 600 known cases of human flu since first emerging in 1997.
On the other hand when it does spread,
it can be pretty deadly: nearly 60 percent of infected humans
died from the virus.
For years the research has suggested that
any mutations that enhanced the virus’s ability to spread
among humans would simultaneously make it less deadly
But in a batch of studies submitted for publication late last
year, two scientists—Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of
Wisconsin–Madison and Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical
Centerin the Netherlands— have shown otherwise.
Working separately, they each hit on a combination of
mutations (five, in Fouchier’s case) that enables H5N1 to
spread readily between humans without making it less deadly.
Efforts to publish those findings have been fraught.
Critics say that making the methodology or gene sequences
widely available amounts to giving would-be bioterrorists
an easy recipe
They also worry that these man-made strains might escape from
the lab Proponents counter that the threat of a global
pandemic, were this mutated strain to arise in nature, is far
greater than the threat of bioterrorism.
Understanding what combination of mutations could
transform H5N1 into a human pandemic virus gives
pidemiologists a leg up on preparing countermeasures; they
can, for example, test existing vaccines against the new strain
As of mid-December, both papers were being reviewed
by the government’s National Science Advisory Board for
Biosecurity (NSABB).
In the meantime, most experts agree that we need a better way
“Physicists have been doing sensitive, classified work for 70
years,” says Michael T. Osterholm, an infectious disease expert
at the University of Minnesota and a member of the
NSABB
“We have to find a way
to do the same in the health
sciences, without compromising
our safety and security.”
it is even published.
But it’s flu season, and influenza science has a way of
causing a stir this time of year
Epidemiologists have long debated the pandemic potential
of H5N1, aka bird flu.
On one hand, the virus spreads too inefficiently between
humans to seem like much of a threat: it has caused fewer
than 600 known cases of human flu since first emerging in 1997.
On the other hand when it does spread,
it can be pretty deadly: nearly 60 percent of infected humans
died from the virus.
For years the research has suggested that
any mutations that enhanced the virus’s ability to spread
among humans would simultaneously make it less deadly
But in a batch of studies submitted for publication late last
year, two scientists—Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of
Wisconsin–Madison and Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical
Centerin the Netherlands— have shown otherwise.
Working separately, they each hit on a combination of
mutations (five, in Fouchier’s case) that enables H5N1 to
spread readily between humans without making it less deadly.
Efforts to publish those findings have been fraught.
Critics say that making the methodology or gene sequences
widely available amounts to giving would-be bioterrorists
an easy recipe
They also worry that these man-made strains might escape from
the lab Proponents counter that the threat of a global
pandemic, were this mutated strain to arise in nature, is far
greater than the threat of bioterrorism.
Understanding what combination of mutations could
transform H5N1 into a human pandemic virus gives
pidemiologists a leg up on preparing countermeasures; they
can, for example, test existing vaccines against the new strain
As of mid-December, both papers were being reviewed
by the government’s National Science Advisory Board for
Biosecurity (NSABB).
In the meantime, most experts agree that we need a better way
“Physicists have been doing sensitive, classified work for 70
years,” says Michael T. Osterholm, an infectious disease expert
at the University of Minnesota and a member of the
NSABB
“We have to find a way
to do the same in the health
sciences, without compromising
our safety and security.”
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